I won't sugar coat it, everything look really bad. Stonks, crypto, everything. All the momentum gained from past weeks is retraced. But as we all know, that's where all the hands get shaken out...or we just capitulate again for the nth time. 🙃
Obligatory: this is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor.
This one is going to be all about me making high time frame grandiose bottom calling patterns stuffed with hopium up the wazoo.
There have only been 3 times in the modern day of the DXY's existence where the monthly RSI has been this far overbought. 1985, 2015, and 2022. It's going way too high too quickly. There's at least a healthy chance that it pulls back and consolidates in the coming weeks. I'm no economic expert by a long shot but it just feels like the market panic is just at hysteric levels with so many global events going on at once. Even if we somehow do end up retesting the 120 high, a pullback is due.
Zooming out to the monthly S&P's RSI. In bull trends the RSI locally bottoms out around 40-50 when it dips but the trend continues up. We can see now that we're right at that point that would be ideal for bull trend continuation. I've highlighted other examples of this RSI trend.
Bitcoin looks like its in a classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern. It fits really well especially when it's main narrative of being a safe haven of value went down the shitter this cycle (could change in future cycles). These patterns are where big players (Blackrock-esque firms) manipulate the price action to shake out anyone left whos willing to drop their bags. Everyone including myself was calling for 14k. This is the perfect setting to take prey upon anyone left that's on the verge of dropping their bag.
Decred's BTC pairing is really interesting to watch when you zoom way out. We can see that we tested lower support and came back into the current range. That same range is the one we were stuck in before last bull run. I don't believe this is a coincidence and this honestly looks like some kind of complex Wyckoff pattern in spirit. Wyckoff accumulations are ultimately just formations to make you lose all hope or panic sell and that's what this price action is trying to do. Anyone who was going to sell would have sold in the lower range. We're now back in the upper range and I feel like there's a good chance we're replicating the 3rd phase of this pattern.
This three phase pattern kind of reminds me of this pattern from @RektProof where he trades this idea of PO3 (Power of 3). It's made of three phases. Accumulation, Manipulation, and Expansion.
Lastly let's briefly talk about the gigantic star destroyer symmetrical triangle on DCR/BTC on log scale.
Trends require at least 3 points of contact to be valid. We definitely have that and so the trend has some validity to it. A symmetrical triangle is just a consolidation pattern but the bias of it tends to be in the direction where it was formed (up). I've been looking around on other alt's BTC pairings and I couldn't find any that have been forming a gigantic symmetrical triangle like this. Most of them don't even make higher lows, but Decred continues to do that. If this breaks up, we could see things go bonkers.
Next up lets look at local macro price action on the USD pair.
We can see we just formed a near identical inverted hammer as the one from July. You can see that it led to a change of character and ultimately to the craziest candle in the history of Decred. I don't see why this couldn't lead to another monster pump again. Maybe this time it'll stick! 🙃
Last but not least the Mayer Multiple Bands.
We can see that we've had two tests of the bottom yellow band and it's proving support on high time frames. If we can keep this range then the next test is $37 and after that $50.
Remember, down never lasts forever. Keep staking and hodl strong.